High School Grades, Not Test Scores, Best Predictor of College Success

File this under Things that Make You Go "Hmmmm."

Two studies of 80,000 students in the University of California system found that high school grade point average (GPA) is "consistently the best predictor" of freshman grades in college and four-year college outcomes.

"High-school grades are often viewed as an unreliable criterion for college admissions, owing to differences in grading standards across high schools, while standardized tests are seen as methodologically rigorous, providing a more uniform and valid yardstick for assessing student ability and achievement. The present study challenges that conventional view. "

Key findings:

1) High school GPA is the best predictor of first-year GPG as well as four-year college outcomes -- including cumulative college grades and graduation -- for all academic disciplines and campuses.

2) The predictive strength of high school grades increases after the freshman year of college.

3) As an admissions criterion, high school GPA has less adverse impact than standardized tests on disadvantaged and underrepresented minority students.